VULNERABILITY TO THE CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT: EVIDENCE FOR POLISH AND SPANISH REGIONS
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Date
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Publisher
Technická Univerzita v Liberci
Technical university of Liberec, Czech Republic
Technical university of Liberec, Czech Republic
Abstract
After the announcement in June 2016 that the UK would leave the EU, studies
analysing the consequences of this reversal in economic integration have proliferated, mostly
presenting prospective consequences for the UK economy. But Brexit will necessarily also have
consequences for non-UK European countries and their regions. Given the different character
and intensity of regions’ interconnections with the British economy, we assess Polish and Spanish
regions’ vulnerability to Brexit in the sphere of foreign trade. We rely on the conceptual framework
originally presented by Turner et al. (2003) comprising: exposure, sensitivity and resilience,
which together describe the overall vulnerability to a specifi c phenomenon. We fi ll the gap in the
Brexit-related literature by applying the perspective of the regions of other EU countries, engaged
in trade relations with the UK. We show that geography “still matters” and due to gravity, path
dependency and FDI, some regions have developed relatively stronger commercial links with the
British economy. We expected to obtain the taxonomy or Polish and Spanish regions ‘mixed’ within
the identifi ed clusters of vulnerability. However, it is not the case, because clusters are mainly
composed by Spanish or Polish regions, with a few exceptions, in which several Polish regions
are accompanied by one or two Spanish regions. The results show greater vulnerability of Spanish
(more exposed but better prepared) than Polish regions (more sensitive). While Brexit is rather
perceived as a national problem, its asymmetrical impact on regions’ economy through the trade
channel is a serious challenge for regional policy. It is therefore the role for regional institutions to
monitor the vulnerability to the Brexit consequences and to facilitate adjustments to the exporting
(and importing) companies that will be severely affected. They can be assisted in searching for the
alternative export (import) markets.
Description
Subject(s)
Brexit, consequences, international trade, regional trade, Poland, Spain
Citation
ISSN
1212-3609