VULNERABILITY TO THE CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT: EVIDENCE FOR POLISH AND SPANISH REGIONS

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorNazarczuk, Jarosław M.
dc.contributor.authorUmiński, Stanisław
dc.contributor.authorMárquez-Ramos, Laura
dc.contributor.otherEkonomická fakultacs
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-06T13:38:25Z
dc.date.available2020-04-06T13:38:25Z
dc.description.abstractAfter the announcement in June 2016 that the UK would leave the EU, studies analysing the consequences of this reversal in economic integration have proliferated, mostly presenting prospective consequences for the UK economy. But Brexit will necessarily also have consequences for non-UK European countries and their regions. Given the different character and intensity of regions’ interconnections with the British economy, we assess Polish and Spanish regions’ vulnerability to Brexit in the sphere of foreign trade. We rely on the conceptual framework originally presented by Turner et al. (2003) comprising: exposure, sensitivity and resilience, which together describe the overall vulnerability to a specifi c phenomenon. We fi ll the gap in the Brexit-related literature by applying the perspective of the regions of other EU countries, engaged in trade relations with the UK. We show that geography “still matters” and due to gravity, path dependency and FDI, some regions have developed relatively stronger commercial links with the British economy. We expected to obtain the taxonomy or Polish and Spanish regions ‘mixed’ within the identifi ed clusters of vulnerability. However, it is not the case, because clusters are mainly composed by Spanish or Polish regions, with a few exceptions, in which several Polish regions are accompanied by one or two Spanish regions. The results show greater vulnerability of Spanish (more exposed but better prepared) than Polish regions (more sensitive). While Brexit is rather perceived as a national problem, its asymmetrical impact on regions’ economy through the trade channel is a serious challenge for regional policy. It is therefore the role for regional institutions to monitor the vulnerability to the Brexit consequences and to facilitate adjustments to the exporting (and importing) companies that will be severely affected. They can be assisted in searching for the alternative export (import) markets.cs
dc.formattext
dc.format.extent16 strancs
dc.identifier.doi10.15240/tul/001/2020-1-003
dc.identifier.eissn2336-5604
dc.identifier.issn1212-3609
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.tul.cz/handle/15240/154724
dc.language.isocscs
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherTechnická Univerzita v Liberci
dc.publisherTechnical university of Liberec, Czech Republicen
dc.publisher.abbreviationTUL
dc.relation.isbasedonAltomonte, C., Aquilante, T., Békés, G., & Ottaviano, G. I. P. (2013). Internationalization and innovation of fi rms: Evidence and policy. Economic Policy, 28(76), 663–700. https://doi. org/10.1111/1468-0327.12020
dc.relation.isbasedonAmin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, S., & Ferrantino, M. J. (2000). Export dynamics and economic growth in Latin America: A comparative perspective. Burlington, VT: Ashgate.
dc.relation.isbasedonAversano-Dearborn, M., Beiglböck, S., & Binot, R. (2011). Regional Challenges in the Perspective of 2020 – Phase 2: Deepening and Broadening the Analysis (Final report). Österreichisches Institut für Raumplanung (ÖIR), Vienna. Retrieved April 16, 2018, from www.oir.at/files/pdf/projects/Regions2020_ FinalReport.pdf
dc.relation.isbasedonAw, B. Y., Roberts, M. J., & Xu, D. Y. (2011). R&D Investment, Exporting, and Productivity Dynamics. American Economic Review, 101(4), 1312–1344. https://doi.org/10.1257/ aer.101.4.1312
dc.relation.isbasedonAyadi, N., Montigaud, J.-C., Rastoin, J.-L., & Tozanli, S. (2006). Impacts of agricultural trade liberalization between the EU and Mediterranean countries: The vulnerability of European regions producing processed fruit and vegetables in a context of international liberalization. CEPII Working Paper no. 2005-13. Madrid.
dc.relation.isbasedonBernatonyte, D. (2015). Estimation of export specialization: Lithuanian case. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 10(3), 129–138. https://doi.org/10.12775/EQUIL.2015.028
dc.relation.isbasedonBilling, C., McCann, P., & Ortega-Argilés, R. (2019). Interregional inequalities and UK sub-national governance responses to Brexit. Regional Studies, 53(5), 741–760. https://doi.or g/10.1080/00343404.2018.1554246
dc.relation.isbasedonBojnec, Š., Fertő, I., & Fogarasi, J. (2014). Quality of institutions and the BRIC countries agro-food exports. China Agricultural Economic Review, 6(3), 379–394. https://doi.org/10.1108/ CAER-02-2013-0034
dc.relation.isbasedonBrakman, S., Garretsen, H., & Kohl, T. (2018). Consequences of Brexit and options for a ‘Global Britain’. Papers in Regional Science, 97(1), 55–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/ pirs.12343
dc.relation.isbasedonBriguglio, L. (2004). Economic vulnerability and resilience: concepts and measurements: Paper presented at the International Workshop on “Vulnerability and Resilience of Small States”, the Commonwealth Secretariat and the University of Malta, University Gozo Centre (pp. 1–11).
dc.relation.isbasedonBriguglio, L. (2014). A Vulnerability and Resilience Framework for Small States. In D. Lewis-Bynoe (Ed.), Building the Resilience of Small States (pp. 10–76). Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.14217/9781848599185-5-en
dc.relation.isbasedonBriguglio, L. (2016a). Economic vulnerability and economic resilience of small island developing states. Presentation at Seminar at the Caribbean Development Bank, Barbados, 26 April 2016.
dc.relation.isbasedonBriguglio, L. (2016b). Exposure to external shocks and economic resilience of countries: Evidence from global indicators. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(6), 1057–1078. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-12-2014-0203
dc.relation.isbasedonBriguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2009). Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, 37(3), 229–247. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810903089893
dc.relation.isbasedonBriguglio, L., & Vella, M. (2016). Trade openness and volatility. Occasional Papers on Islands and Small States, (4), 1–15.
dc.relation.isbasedonBrodzicki, T., & Umiński, S. (2017). A gravity panel data analysis of foreign trade by regions: The role of metropolises and history. Regional Studies, 52(2), 261–273. https://doi.org/10.108 0/00343404.2017.1296123
dc.relation.isbasedonCapello, R., Caragliu, A., & Fratesi, U. (2018). The regional costs of market size losses in a EU dismembering process. Papers in Regional Science, 97(1), 73–90. https://doi. org/10.1111/pirs.12347
dc.relation.isbasedonCharron, N., Dahlberg, S., Holmberg, S., Rothstein, B., Khomenko, A., & Svensson, R. (2016). The Quality of Government EU Regional Dataset. University of Gothenburg: The Quality of Government Institute. (version Sep16). Retrieved March 12, 2018, from http://www.qog.pol.gu.se
dc.relation.isbasedonChen, W., Los, B., McCann, P., OrtegaArgilés, R., Thissen, M., & van Oort, F. (2018). The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel. Papers in Regional Science, 97(1), 25–54. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12334
dc.relation.isbasedonChuang, Y.-C. (2000). Human Capital, Exports, and Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for Taiwan, 1952–1995. Review of International Economics, 8(4), 712–720. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00252
dc.relation.isbasedonCieślik, A., Michałek, J., & Michałek, A. (2014). The Infl uence of Firm Characteristics and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons of Visegrad, Baltic and Caucasus States. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 2(1), 7–18. https://doi. org/10.15678/EBER.2014.020102
dc.relation.isbasedonContractor, F. J., & Mudambi, S. M. (2008). The infl uence of human capital investment on the exports of services and goods: An analysis of the top 25 services outsourcing countries. Management International Review, 48(4), 433–445. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11575-008- 0025-9
dc.relation.isbasedonCordina, G. (2004). Economic vulnerability and economic growth: some results from a neoclassical growth modelling approach. Journal of Economic Development, 29(2), 21–39.
dc.relation.isbasedonDiPietro, W. R., & Anoruo, E. (2006). Creativity, innovation, and export performance. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(2), 133–139.
dc.relation.isbasedonDiPietro, W. R., & Anoruo, E. (2006). Creativity, innovation, and export performance. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(2), 133–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2005.10.001
dc.relation.isbasedonDunning, J. H., & Lundan, S. M. (2014). Multinational enterprises and the global economy (2nd ed., repr.). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar
dc.relation.isbasedonDuranton, G., & Puga, D. (2004). Chapter 48 Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies. In P. Nijkamp, E. S. Mills, P. Cheshire, J. V. Henderson, & J.-F. Thisse (Eds.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics: Cities and Geography (Vol. 4, pp. 2063–2117). Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0080(04)80005-1
dc.relation.isbasedonEuropean Commission. (2008). The impact of globalisation and increased trade liberalisation on European regions: Study for DG Regio. Final report, (pp. 1–132).
dc.relation.isbasedonEuropean Parliament. (2018). Democracy on the move. European elections - one year to go: Eurobarometer Survey 89.2 of the European Parliament. A Public Opinion Monitoring Study.Parliament website http://www.europarl.europa. eu/pdf/eurobarometre/2018/oneyearbefore2019/ eb89_one_year_before_2019_eurobarometer_ en_opt.pdf Brussels. Retrieved May 18, 2019, from European
dc.relation.isbasedonFelbermayr, G., Fuest, C., Gröschl, J., & Stöhlke, D. (2017). Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy, EconPol Policy Report, 4/2017, 1–39. Retrieved May 12, 2019, from http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ EconPol_Policy_Report_04_2017_Brexit.pdf
dc.relation.isbasedonFingleton, B., Garretsen, H., & Martin, R. (2015). Shocking aspects of monetary union: The vulnerability of regions in Euroland. Journal of Economic Geography, 15(5), 907–934. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu055
dc.relation.isbasedonForsgren, M. (2008). Theories of the Multinational Firm: A Multidimensional Creature in the Global Economy. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
dc.relation.isbasedonFrazier, T. G., Thompson, C. M., & Dezzani, R. J. (2014). A framework for the development of the SERV model: A Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability model. Applied Geography, 51, 158–172. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.04.004
dc.relation.isbasedonGeorgescu, G. (2015). International Fragmentation of Production. Local Vulnerabilities and Capitalization of Heritage Values in Romania. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 188, 270–275. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.03.391
dc.relation.isbasedonGil, S., Llorca, R., & Serrano, J. A. M. (2008). Measuring the impact of regional export promotion: The Spanish case. Papers in Regional Science, 87(1), 139–146. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2007.00155.x
dc.relation.isbasedonGrasjo, U. (2008). Universityeducated Labor, R&D and Regional Export Performance. International Regional Science Review, 31(3), 211–256. https://doi. org/10.1177/0160017608319335
dc.relation.isbasedonHandley, K., & Limão, N. (2017). Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107(9), 2731–2783. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141419
dc.relation.isbasedonHead, K., & Mayer, T. (2014). Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook. In G. Copinath, E. Helpman, & K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics (Vol. 4., pp. 131–195). Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi. org/10.1016/B978-0-444-54314-1.00003-3
dc.relation.isbasedonHerzer, D., & Nowak-Lehnmann D., F. (2006). What does export diversifi cation do for growth? An econometric analysis. Applied Economics, 38(15), 1825–1838. https://doi. org/10.1080/00036840500426983
dc.relation.isbasedonInternational Monetary Fund. (2013). Macroeconomic Issues in small states and implications for fund engagement, (pp. 1–66). Retrieved June 18, 2016, from https://www.imf. org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/022013.pdf
dc.relation.isbasedonJohanson, J., & Vahlne, J.-E. (1977). The Internationalization Process of the Firm – A Model of Knowledge Development and Increasing Foreign Market Commitments. Journal of International Business Studies, 8(1), 23–32.
dc.relation.isbasedonLevin, A., & Raut, L. K. (1997). Complementarities between Exports and Human Capital in Economic Growth: Evidence from the Semi-industrialized Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 46(1), 155–174. https://doi.org/10.1086/452325 Lewis-Bynoe, D. (2014). Building the resilience of small states: A revised framework. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
dc.relation.isbasedonLos, B., McCann, P., Springford, J., & Thissen, M. (2016). The mismatch between local voting and the local economic consequences of Brexit. Regional Studies, 51(5), 786–799. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2017.1287350
dc.relation.isbasedonMartínez-Zarzoso, I., & Márquez-Ramos, L. (2018). Exports and governance: Is the Middle East and North Africa region different? World Economy, 91(5), 143–174. https://doi. org/10.1111/twec.12633
dc.relation.isbasedonMárquez-Ramos, L., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Suárez-Burguet, C. (2012). Trade Policy versus Trade Facilitation: An Application Using „Good Old“ OLS. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 6(2012-11), 1–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economicsejournal.ja.2012-11
dc.relation.isbasedonMárquez-Ramos, L. (2016) Port facilities, regional spillovers and exports: Empirical evidence from Spain. Papers in Regional Science, 95(2), 329–351. http://dx.doi. org/10.1111/pirs.12127
dc.relation.isbasedonMayer, T., & Ottaviano, G. I. P. (2008). The Happy Few: The Internationalisation of European Firms. Intereconomics, 43(3), 135–148. https:// doi.org/10.1007/s10272-008-0247-x
dc.relation.isbasedonMcCann, P. (2018). The trade, geography and regional implications of Brexit. Papers Regional Science, 97(1), 3–8. https://doi. org/10.1111/pirs.12352
dc.relation.isbasedonMelitz, M. J., & Redding, S. J. (2014). Heterogeneous Firms and Trade. Handbook of International Economics (Vol. 4, 1–54). Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/ B978-0-444-54314-1.00001-X
dc.relation.isbasedonNaudé, W., Bosker, M., & Matthee, M. (2010). Export Specialisation and Local Economic Growth. World Economy, 33(4), 552–572. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467- 9701.2009.01239.x
dc.relation.isbasedonNazarczuk, J. M., & Umiński, S. (2019). Foreign Trade in Special Economic Zones in Poland. UWM, Olsztyn. Retrieved July 31, 2019, from https://depot.ceon.pl/bitstream/ handle/123456789/16936/Nazarczuk_ Uminski_2019_Foreign_Trade_in_Special_ Economic_Zones_in_Poland.pdf
dc.relation.isbasedonNazarczuk, J. M., Umiński, S., & Brodzicki, T. (2019). Determinants of the spatial distribution of exporters in regions: the role of ownership. The Annals of Regional Science, 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-019-00947-6
dc.relation.isbasedonNazarczuk, J. M., & Umiński, S. (2018). The impact of special economic zones on export behaviour: Evidence from polish fi rm-level data. E&M Ekonomics and Management, 21(3), 4–22. https://doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2018-3-001
dc.relation.isbasedonNazarczuk, J., Umiński, S., & GawlikowskaHueckel, K. (2018). The Role of Specialisation in the Export Success of Polish Counties in 2004–2015. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 6(2), 91–109. https://doi. org/10.15678/EBER.2018.060205
dc.relation.isbasedonPatton, M., Xia, W., Feng, S., & Hewitt, V. (2016). Economic Structure and Vulnerability to Recession in Rural Areas. EuroChoices, 15(3), 47–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12135
dc.relation.isbasedonRodríguez-Pose, A. (2018). The revenge of the places that don’t matter (and what to do about it). Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 11(1), 189–209. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsx024
dc.relation.isbasedonRöhn, O., Sánchez, A. C., Hermansen, M., & Rasmussen, M. (2015). Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries (OECD Economics Department Working No. 1249). Paris: OECD Publishing
dc.relation.isbasedonSimionescu, M., Bilan, Y., Smrčka, L., & Vincúrová, Z. (2017). The effects of European economic integration and the impact of Brexit on the UK immigrants from the CEE countries. E&M Ekonomics and Management, 20(1), 29–47. https://doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2017-1-003
dc.relation.isbasedonTeixeira, A. C., & Barros, M. J. (2014). Local municipalities’ involvement in promoting the internationalisation of SMEs. Local Economy, 29(1–2), 141–162. https://doi. org/10.1177/0269094214522115
dc.relation.isbasedonTurner, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., ... Martello, M. L. (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 100(14), 8074–8079. https://doi. org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100
dc.relation.isbasedonUnited Nations. (2011). Towards human resilience: Sustaining mdg progress in an age of economic uncertainty. New York, NY: United Nations Development Programme.
dc.relation.isbasedonZaucha, J., Ciołek, D., Brodzicki, T., & Głazek, E. (2014). Wrażliwość polskich regionów na wyzwania gospodarki globalnej (The sensitivity of Polish regions to global economy challenges-in Polish). In K. Gawlikowska-Hueckel & J. Szlachta (Eds.), Wrażliwość polskich regionów na wyzwania współczesnej gospodarki. Implikacje dla polityki rozwoju regionalnego (The sensitivity of Polish regions to global economy’s challenges. Implications for regional policy) (pp. 206–244).
dc.relation.isbasedonZhang, K. H., & Song, S. (2001). Promoting exports: The role of inward FDI in China. China Economic Review, 11(4), 385–396. https://doi. org/10.1016/S1043-951X(01)00033-5
dc.relation.ispartofEkonomie a Managementcs
dc.relation.ispartofEconomics and Managementen
dc.relation.isrefereedtrue
dc.rightsCC BY-NC
dc.subjectBrexitcs
dc.subjectconsequencescs
dc.subjectinternational tradecs
dc.subjectregional tradecs
dc.subjectPolandcs
dc.subjectSpaincs
dc.subject.classificationF14
dc.subject.classificationR11
dc.subject.classificationF15
dc.titleVULNERABILITY TO THE CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT: EVIDENCE FOR POLISH AND SPANISH REGIONScs
dc.typeArticleen
local.accessopen
local.citation.epage49
local.citation.spage34
local.facultyFaculty of Economics
local.filenameEM_1_2020_03
local.fulltextyes
local.relation.abbreviationE+Mcs
local.relation.abbreviationE&Men
local.relation.issue1
local.relation.volume23
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
EM_1_2020_03 (1).pdf
Size:
1.37 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
článek
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Číslo 1