Is consumer confidence index a suitable predictor of future economic growth? An evidence from the USA

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dc.contributor.author Mazurek, Jiøí
dc.contributor.author Mielcová, Elena
dc.contributor.other Ekonomická fakulta cs
dc.date.accessioned 2017-06-26
dc.date.available 2017-06-26
dc.date.issued 2017-06-15
dc.identifier.issn 1212-3609
dc.identifier.uri https://dspace.tul.cz/handle/15240/20840
dc.description.abstract The problem of the prediction of business cycles, and economic recessions in particular, belongs among the most important topics of contemporary macroeconomics. However, economists were not considerably successful when dealing with the recession forecasting so far, notably, the Great Recession of the late 2000s and early 2010s emerged rather surprisingly. The aim of this paper is to examine the statistical relationship (in terms of Granger causality) between the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and real GDP growth in the USA from 1960 to 2015 in order to find whether the CCI can be a suitable predictor of the economic growth, or economic recessions respectively. Also the short-term dynamics of four periods covering US economic recessions (1967-1978, 1975-1985, 1995-2005, and 2005-2015) was examined. The main results are that the CCI Granger causes GDP in the long-run, with the lag of 6 months. As for shorter periods, the CCI Granger caused GDP in three out of four examined periods, including the Great Recession (with the lag of 3 months), and only for the so called dot-com bubble period Granger causality was reversed, with GDP causing the CCI with the lag of 6 months. These results indicate that the CCI can be considered a suitable predictor of GDP at least for the USA, but more complex and broader study, including other major economics such as the European Union, Germany, or Japan, is certainly needed. en
dc.format text
dc.format.extent 30-45 stran cs
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher Technical university of Liberec, Czech Republic en
dc.publisher Technická Univerzita v Liberci cs
dc.relation.ispartof Ekonomie a Management cs
dc.relation.ispartof Economics and Management en
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dc.rights CC BY-NC
dc.subject Consumer Confidence Index en
dc.subject economic growth en
dc.subject GDP en
dc.subject Granger causality en
dc.subject VAR model3 en
dc.subject.classification C22
dc.subject.classification C53
dc.subject.classification O47
dc.subject.classification O51
dc.title Is consumer confidence index a suitable predictor of future economic growth? An evidence from the USA en
dc.type Article en
dc.publisher.abbreviation TUL
dc.relation.isrefereed true
dc.identifier.doi 10.15240/tul/001/2017-2-003
dc.identifier.eissn 2336-5604
local.relation.volume 20
local.relation.issue 2
local.relation.abbreviation E+M cs
local.relation.abbreviation E&M en
local.faculty Faculty of Economics
local.citation.spage 30
local.citation.epage 45
local.access open
local.fulltext yes


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