Browsing by Author "Mielcová, Elena"
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- ItemIs consumer confidence index a suitable predictor of future economic growth? An evidence from the USA(Technical university of Liberec, Czech Republic, 2017-06-15) Mazurek, Jiøí; Mielcová, Elena; Ekonomická fakultaThe problem of the prediction of business cycles, and economic recessions in particular, belongs among the most important topics of contemporary macroeconomics. However, economists were not considerably successful when dealing with the recession forecasting so far, notably, the Great Recession of the late 2000s and early 2010s emerged rather surprisingly. The aim of this paper is to examine the statistical relationship (in terms of Granger causality) between the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and real GDP growth in the USA from 1960 to 2015 in order to find whether the CCI can be a suitable predictor of the economic growth, or economic recessions respectively. Also the short-term dynamics of four periods covering US economic recessions (1967-1978, 1975-1985, 1995-2005, and 2005-2015) was examined. The main results are that the CCI Granger causes GDP in the long-run, with the lag of 6 months. As for shorter periods, the CCI Granger caused GDP in three out of four examined periods, including the Great Recession (with the lag of 3 months), and only for the so called dot-com bubble period Granger causality was reversed, with GDP causing the CCI with the lag of 6 months. These results indicate that the CCI can be considered a suitable predictor of GDP at least for the USA, but more complex and broader study, including other major economics such as the European Union, Germany, or Japan, is certainly needed.
- ItemOn the relationship between selected socio-economic indicators and student performances in the PISA 2015 study(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Mazurek, Jiří; Mielcová, Elena; Ekonomická fakultaThe main aim of this paper was to examine the relationship between the PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) international study results of 15 and 16 years-old pupils from 2015 and a set of socio-economic indicators (on a national level) such as governments’ expenditures on primary education, gross domestic product per capita, the Democracy index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit, or primary teachers’ salaries. The study covered 71 countries or territories, including 34 OECD countries and their 37 non-OECD counterparts. The methods included multivariate linear models, models based on Törnquist functions, and cluster analysis. The main result of the study is that there exists a threshold in terms of GDP per capita and government expenditures on primary education per capita. Above the threshold, the higher GDP per capita or expenditures do not translate into the higher PISA scores. However, below this threshold, the opposite is true. Therefore, poorer and mainly non-OECD countries may achieve better student performances in PISA tests by increasing expenditures on primary education, while for student performances of the wealthy and mainly OECD countries expenditures are not a statistically significant factor. The division between OECD and non-OECD countries was also confirmed to be statistically significant by cluster analysis method. In addition, from linear multivariate models it was found that PISA scores were statistically significantly (and positively) related to the national GDP per capita, governments’ expenditures on primary education, and the Democracy index, while the influence of primary teachers’ salaries on PISA scores was found statistically insignificant