INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND UNIT ROOT TESTS IN THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES
dc.contributor.author | Vyrostková, Lenka | |
dc.contributor.author | Mirdala, Rajmund | |
dc.contributor.other | Ekonomická fakulta | cs |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-12-12T11:20:19Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-12-12T11:20:19Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Persistence is one of the main characteristics of inflation. One of the definitions of persistent inflation is, that it is the rate at which inflation reaches equilibrium after a certain macroeconomic shock. If the inflation persistence is high, the response to inflation shocks is long-lasting and difficult for the central bank to control. Conversely, if the country’s inflation persistence is low, the central bank can keep the inflation rate in line with the inflation target. The recent economic crisis made central banks adopt several unconventional monetary policy instruments to boost economic recovery and preserve price stability. Many authors note that data on stationary inflation in the euro area countries is a precondition for joining the European Union. As far as the functioning of the European Union is concerned, it is desirable to take the necessary decisions. The primary objective of the paper is to test the inflation rate data in the euro area countries to verify the existence of a unit root considering that central banks design their monetary policy frameworks under the assumption that inflation is a stationary process. The verification of the stationarity of the inflation data is divided into two sections. In the first section, the monthly data panel of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for euro-zone countries is used. The second section uses a panel of monthly data the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for each category of Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose for euro area countries. Our results indicate that time series for inflation in 11 of 19 euro area member countries are non-stationary and have a unit root. Considering our results we propose the creation of a two-speed euro area and the adjustment of the monetary policy framework in the euro area countries. | en |
dc.format | text | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.15240/tul/001/2022-4-001 | |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2336-5604 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1212-3609 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://dspace.tul.cz/handle/15240/166296 | |
dc.language.iso | en | |
dc.publisher | Technická Univerzita v Liberci | cs |
dc.publisher | Technical university of Liberec, Czech Republic | en |
dc.publisher.abbreviation | TUL | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Alogoskoufis, G. S., & Smith, R. (1991). The Phillips Curve, The Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes. The American Economic Review, 81(5), 1254–1275. | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Alogoskoufis, G. S. (1992). Monetary Accommodation, Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence. The Economic Journal, 102(412), 461–480. https://doi.org/10.2307/2234285 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Anderton, R. (1997). Did the underlying behaviour of inflation change in the 1980s? A study of 17 countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 133(1), 22–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707674 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Angeloni, I., Aucremanne, L., Ehrmann, M., Galí, J., Levin, A., & Smets, F. (2006). New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modeling. Journal of the European Economic Association, 4(2–3), 562–574. https://doi.org/10.1162/jeea.2006.4.2-3.562 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Baxter, M., & Stockman, A. C. (1989). Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime: Some international evidence. Journal of monetary Economics, 23(3), 377–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90039-1 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Benati, L. (2008). Investigating Inflation Persistence across Monetary Regimes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(3), 1005–1060. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2008.123.3.1005 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Breitung, J. (2001). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. In B. H. Baltagi, T. B. Fomby, & R. Carter Hill (Eds.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels (Advances in Econometrics) (Vol. 15, pp. 161–177). Emerald Group Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0731-9053(00)15006-6 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Boisset, L. (2019). Eurozone convergence: Where do things stand today? BNP Paribas. Retrieved February 20, 2022, from https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-convergence-Where-things-stand-today-4/30/2019,32951 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Canarella, G., & Miller, S. M. (2017). Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration. Journal of Economics and Business, 92, 45–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2017.05.002 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Caporin, M., & Gupta, R. (2017). Time-varying persistence in US inflation. Empirical Economics, 53(2), 423–439. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1144-y | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Cuestas, J. C., & Harrison, B. (2010). Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries. Economics Letters, 106(2), 81–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2009.10.006 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Eurostat. (2021). Glossary: COICOP HICP. Retrieved September 20, 2021, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:COICOP_HICP | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Eurostat. (2022). HICP – monthly data (annual rate of change). Retrieved September 20, 2021, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/PRC_HICP_MANR__custom_2911432/default/table?lang=en | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Ferreiro, J., Gálvez, C., Gómez, C., & González, A. (2017). Economic crisis and convergence in the Eurozone countries. Panoeconomicus, 64(2), 223–244. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1702223F | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Fuhrer, J., & Moore, G. (1995). Inflation persistence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1), 127–159. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118513 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Fuhrer, J. C. (2010). Chapter 9 – Inflation Persistence. In B. J. Friedman, & M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics (Vol. 3, pp. 423–486). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00009-0 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Gajewski, P. (2018). Patterns of regional inflation persistence in a CEE country. The case of Poland. Economic Research – Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31(1), 1351–1366. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1484789 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 148–161. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423X.00043 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Kanellopoulos, N. C., & Koutroulis, A. G. (2016). Non-linearities in euro area inflation persistence. Economic Modelling, 59, 116–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.07.006 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Kočenda, E., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Inflation convergence within the European Union: A panel data analysis. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2(3), 189–198. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1158(199707)2:3<189 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Kočenda, E., & Varga, B. (2017, February). The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence (Working Paper Series No. 6306). CESifo. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2920663 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Kundera, J. (2019). The Future of EU: Towards a two Speed Europe. European Research Studies Journal, 22(3), 261–281. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/1469 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Levin, A., & Piger, J. M. (2004, April). Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies? (ECB Working Paper Series No. 334). European Central Bank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.384584 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Marelli, E. P., Parisi, M. L., & Signorelli, M. (2019). Economic convergence in the EU and Eurozone. Journal of Economic Studies, 46(7), 1332–1344. https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-03-2019-0139 | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | Marques, C. R. (2004). Inflation Persistence: Facts or Artefacts? (Working Paper Series No. 371). European Central Bank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.533131 | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Ekonomie a Management | cs |
dc.relation.ispartof | Economics and Management | en |
dc.relation.isrefereed | true | |
dc.rights | CC BY-NC | |
dc.subject | inflation persistence | en |
dc.subject | unit root tests | en |
dc.subject | euro area countries | en |
dc.subject.classification | E31 | |
dc.subject.classification | E52 | |
dc.title | INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND UNIT ROOT TESTS IN THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES | en |
dc.type | Article | en |
local.access | open | |
local.citation.epage | 19 | |
local.citation.spage | 4 | |
local.faculty | Faculty of Economics | |
local.filename | EM_4_2022_1 | |
local.fulltext | yes | |
local.relation.abbreviation | E+M | cs |
local.relation.abbreviation | E&M | en |
local.relation.issue | 4 | |
local.relation.volume | 25 |
Files
Original bundle
1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
- Name:
- EM_4_2022_01.pdf
- Size:
- 629.05 KB
- Format:
- Adobe Portable Document Format
- Description:
- článek