A debt sustainability analysis of the czech republic and the slovak republic: a non parametric approach

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorFarkašovský, Vlastimil
dc.contributor.authorLawson, Colin William
dc.contributor.authorZimková,Emília
dc.contributor.otherEkonomická fakultacs
dc.date.accessioned2015-09-02
dc.date.available2015-09-02
dc.date.defense2015-09-04
dc.description.abstractSurging public debt since the Great Recession has focused increasing attention on the issue of debt sustainability. This paper provides debt sustainability analyses for the Czech Republic and Slovakia by estimating their public debt to GDP, and primary balance to GDP ratios up until 2022 under three different projections. The first, labelled the baseline projection, predicts their debt ratios to 2022, if neither their public debt to GDP ratios nor their primary balance to GDP ratios change. This projection uses the official forecasts of the key variables. The second projection answers the question of how much the two counties have to consolidate, measured by their primary balance to GDP ratios, if they want to hold their public debt to GDP ratios at their current levels. The third projection answers the question of how much the countries have to consolidate if they aim to re-attain their December 2008 pre-crisis public debt to GDP ratios. All three projections are made for the same five scenarios, which cover a status quo case, where official forecasts are realized, and both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for growth and consolidation outcomes. The paper`s novelty lies in its development of an existing non-parametric methodology to encompass iterative numerical solution methods to assess public debt sustainability. This allows a richer set of results to be obtained, for example estimates for the required level of the public debt to GDP ratio, and the primary balance to GDP ratio, taking account of variables such as nominal interest rates, yields to maturity on public debt, inflation rates and average maturities of debt.en
dc.formattext
dc.format.extent18-29 s.cs
dc.identifier.doi10.15240/tul/001/2015-3-002
dc.identifier.eissn2336-5604
dc.identifier.issn12123609
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.tul.cz/handle/15240/13238
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherTechnická Univerzita v Libercics
dc.publisherTechnical university of Liberec, Czech Republicen
dc.publisher.abbreviationTUL
dc.relation.isbasedonBECKER, S., DEUBER, G., STANKIEWICZ, S. Public debt in 2020. Deutsche Bank Research. 2010. pp. 1-24. ISSN 1612-314X.
dc.relation.isbasedonDANIEL, B. C., SHIAMPTARIS, C. Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 2013, Vol. 37, Iss. 11, pp. 2307-2321. ISSN 0165-1889.
dc.relation.isbasedonEuropean economic forecast. Winter [online]. Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission, c2013 [cit. 2014-06-10]. 155 p. (PDF). Available from: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2013/pdf/ee2_en.pdf. DOI: 10.2765/3931.
dc.relation.isbasedonFYLSTRA, D., WARREN, A. Design and use of the Microsoft Excel Solver. Interfaces. 1998, Vol. 28, No. 5, pp. 29-55. ISSN 0092-2102.
dc.relation.isbasedonHERNDON, T., ASH, M., POLIN, R. Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Cambridge Journal of Economics. 2014, Vol. 38, Iss. 2, pp. 257-279. ISSN 1464-3545.
dc.relation.isbasedonHINDLS, R., HRONOVA, S. Reflection of Economic Development of Selected Countries in the Structure of Final Consumption Expenditure. Politická ekonomie. 2012, Vol. 60, Iss. 4, pp. 425-441. ISSN 0032-3233.
dc.relation.isbasedonMacroeconomic forecast October [online]. Prague: Ministry of Finance of Czech Republic, c2013 [cit. 2014-06-11]. 68 p. (PDF). Available from: http://www.mfcr.cz/assets/en/media/Macroeconomic-Forecast-October-2013.pdf. ISSN 1804‐7971.
dc.relation.isbasedonMELECKﾝ, A., GUBANIOVﾁ, M. Fiskálnípravidla v zemích Visegrádské čtyřky. Ekonomick© časopis/Journal of Economics. 2013, Vol. 61, No. 5, pp. 437-452. ISSN 0013-3035.
dc.relation.isbasedonOECD Economic outlook - Czech Republic [online]. OECD Publishing, c2012 [cit. 2014-06-08]. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/czech-republic-economic-forecast-summary.htm.
dc.relation.isbasedonOECD. Economic outlook No 95. OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections database [online]. OECD, c2014 [vid. 2014-08-26]. Available from: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/oecd-economic-outlook-statistics-and-projections/oecd-economic-outlook-no-95_data-00688-en. DOI: 10.1787/data-00688-en.
dc.relation.isbasedonORVISKA, M., HUDSON, J. Tax evasion, civic duty and the law abiding citizen. European Journal of political Economy. 2003, Vol. 19, Iss. 1, pp. 83-102. ISSN 0176-2680.
dc.relation.isbasedonREINHART, C., ROGOFF, K.S. Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review. 2010, Vol. 100, Iss. 2, pp. 466-472. ISSN 0002-8282. DOI: 10.1257/aer.100.2.573.
dc.relation.isbasedonREINHART, C., ROGOFF, K.S. From fiscal crisis to debt crisis. American Economic Review. 2011, Vol. 101, Iss. 5, pp. 1676-1706. ISSN 0002-8282. DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.5.1676.
dc.relation.isbasedonSIXTA, J., FISCHER, J. Accrual taxes, capital formation and consumption in government sector. Politická ekonomie. 2010, Vol. 58, Iss. 6, pp. 798-804. ISSN 0032-3233.
dc.relation.isbasedonSTURZENEGGER, F. Toolkit for the analysis of debt problems. Buenos Aires: Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, 2002 [cit. 2014-06-10]. Available from: http://www.utdt.edu/departamentos/empresarial/cif/pdfs-wp/wpcif-122002.pdf.
dc.relation.isbasedonURADNICEK, V., ZIMKOVA, E. Debt and growth in the Visegrad countries; threshold analysis. Acta Aerarii Publici. 2014, Vol. 11, Special issue, pp. 120-125. ISSN 1336-8818.
dc.relation.isbasedonYEYATI, E.L. Optimal Debt? On the insurance value of international debt flows to developing countries. Open Economies Review. 2006, Vol. 20, Iss. 4, pp. 489-507. ISSN 1573-708X. DOI: 10.1007/s11079-008-9086-4.
dc.relation.ispartofEkonomie a Managementcs
dc.relation.ispartofEconomics and Managementen
dc.relation.isrefereedtrue
dc.rightsCC BY-NC
dc.subjectregionen
dc.subjectregional competitivenessen
dc.subjectmeasurement of regional competitivenessen
dc.subjectβ-convergenceen
dc.subjectσ convergenceen
dc.subject.classificationH12
dc.subject.classificationH63
dc.subject.classificationH68
dc.titleA debt sustainability analysis of the czech republic and the slovak republic: a non parametric approachen
dc.typeArticleen
local.accessopen
local.citation.epage29
local.citation.spage18
local.facultyFaculty of Economics
local.fulltextyes
local.relation.abbreviationE&Men
local.relation.abbreviationE+Mcs
local.relation.issue3
local.relation.volume18
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
10.15240tul0012015-3-002.pdf
Size:
1.26 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
licence.txt
Size:
1.74 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Číslo 3