- ItemImpact of economic indicators on development of capital market(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Plachý, Rudolf; Rašovec, Tomáš; Ekonomická fakultaThe capital market is one of the most important elements of any healthy, well-functioning economy. The volume and value of executed capital market transactions are affected not only by the number of issuers and investor’s willingness to buy, but also by economic development in the broadest sense. This article discusses the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and development of stock market index in different countries. It assesses the direction and intensity of relationships between macroeconomic indicators and stock market index and explains possible causes of these conditions. Analysis of the relationship is carried out in different countries with different levels of economic development, both in Europe and overseas. Emphasis was put on the selection of those countries, which were significantly affected by the economic recession. The indicators that affect value of stock market index were selected based on economic theory. Among them belong: gross domestic product, inflation, interest rate, export, and import and unemployment rate. After determining the degree of dependence between macroeconomic indicators and value of stock market index, countries were grouped together in clusters. Clustering was therefore not conducted on the basis of the values of macroeconomic indicators of a country, but on the basis of these indicators having a similar effect on the value of the stock market index. Before cluster analysis, input matrix of variables was subjected to factor analysis to reduce the original number of variables.
- ItemA debt sustainability analysis of the czech republic and the slovak republic: a non parametric approach(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Farkašovský, Vlastimil; Lawson, Colin William; Zimková,Emília; Ekonomická fakultaSurging public debt since the Great Recession has focused increasing attention on the issue of debt sustainability. This paper provides debt sustainability analyses for the Czech Republic and Slovakia by estimating their public debt to GDP, and primary balance to GDP ratios up until 2022 under three different projections. The first, labelled the baseline projection, predicts their debt ratios to 2022, if neither their public debt to GDP ratios nor their primary balance to GDP ratios change. This projection uses the official forecasts of the key variables. The second projection answers the question of how much the two counties have to consolidate, measured by their primary balance to GDP ratios, if they want to hold their public debt to GDP ratios at their current levels. The third projection answers the question of how much the countries have to consolidate if they aim to re-attain their December 2008 pre-crisis public debt to GDP ratios. All three projections are made for the same five scenarios, which cover a status quo case, where official forecasts are realized, and both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for growth and consolidation outcomes. The paper`s novelty lies in its development of an existing non-parametric methodology to encompass iterative numerical solution methods to assess public debt sustainability. This allows a richer set of results to be obtained, for example estimates for the required level of the public debt to GDP ratio, and the primary balance to GDP ratio, taking account of variables such as nominal interest rates, yields to maturity on public debt, inflation rates and average maturities of debt.
- ItemTesting the efficacy of information transmission: is equity style index better than stock market index?(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Lau, Wee-Yeap; Lee, Chin; Ekonomická fakultaThis paper examines the ability of equity style to predict future movement of composite leading economic index in a multivariate Granger causality framework. By comparing the efficacy of information transmission between equity style index and Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index, our results show that there is unidirectional causality from growth style to leading economic index. Second, there is also unidirectional flow from growth style to Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index. Third, there is a bidirectional relationship between growth style and KLCI broad market index. Finally, there is bidirectional causality between both growth style and value style. Further analysis from cross-correlation function reveals that growth style index is better than Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index. The former provides accurate and stronger cross-correlation with leading economic index. From these empirical evidences, it can be concluded that growth style index is a leading indicator which has more economic content than stock market index. It is better than stock market index in its efficacy of information transmission. The study brings to the awareness to policy makers and practitioners of the usefulness of equity style in constructing future leading economic index and early warning system of financial crisis.
- ItemStock market reaction to ict implementation: model based on comparison of developed and transition economies(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Janke, František; Packová,Miroslava; Prídavok, Mojmír; Ekonomická fakultaCompanies are more productive, grow faster, invest more, and are more profitable when using Information and Communication Technology (ICT) more intensively. Several studies provided evidence that implementation of ICT into companies’ processes contributes to economic growth both on companies’ and macroeconomic level. In spite of wide range of studies in this area, only few studies focused on how the ICT implementation is perceived by investors at stock market and whether this information make movements in companies’ shares prices. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to provide literature overview related to the area of the impact of ICT implementation on company´s stock price, comparing results from developed (US) and transition economies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and using the results from relevant literature to provide a comparison of incidence of particular factors´ influence on the impact of ICT implementation on company’s stock prices. Based on the previous researches, a model describing factors that influence company’s stock price movement after ICT solution implementation and announcement, has been created.