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- ItemTransmission of Financial Stress Shocks between the USA and the Euro Area During Different Business Cycle Phases(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Dajčman, Silvo; Kavkler, Alenka; Mikek, Peter; Romih, Dejan; Ekonomická fakultaThis paper examines the transmission of financial stress shocks between the USA and the euro area for recessionary and non-recessionary regimes in the shock-recipient economy. The investigated period is 1999M1–2017M11, which includes several episodes of recessionary and non-recessionary regimes, endogenously determined by the model, as well as several financial stress episodes. After testing for non-linearity, we employ a five-variable Bayesian threshold vector autoregression model using internationally compatible data for financial stress indices. Our results show significant non-linearities in the financial stress-business cycle interactions for the euro area. In comparison to the non-recessionary regime, the US financial stress shocks are more detrimental to the stability of the European financial system, output growth, and inflation in recessions. US financial stress shocks negatively affect euro area unemployment rate, but the effect is independent of the euro area industrial production growth regime. In contrast, the stability of the US financial system is not susceptible to the euro area’s financial stress shocks. However, due to trade ties, the financial stress in the euro area does lead to output contraction, while not affecting inflation and unemployment in the US. We also found that US industrial production growth and unemployment rate are susceptible to domestic financial stress shocks, more in the recessionary than non-recessionary episodes of the US economy. The results suggest a need for a careful domestic and foreign financial stress monitoring and coordination of monetary authorities. While this may profit both economic areas, this is relevant more for the European Central Bank than its US counterpart.
- ItemTargeting of Online Advertising Using Logistic Regression(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Šoltés, Erik; Táborecká-Petrovičová, Janka; Šipoldová, Romana; Ekonomická fakultaRecently, the internet became the dominant medium in marketing and comparing the development of expenditures into advertising indicates the dominance of online advertising will be inevitably stronger. Internet advertising compared to traditional media advertising has plenty of advantages hence online marketing exhibits a huge expansion in recent era. To fully utilize the potential of online marketing, it is necessary to effectively target activities of relevant internet users with the real presumption they will purchase promoted products or services. The paper is focused on demographic targeting by the mean of logistic regression models. Explanatory variables in presented application are arising from affinities of internet webpages visited by particular users and areas of their interests that are identified from their online behaviour. Our paper provides binomial logistic mode whose role is to predict the gender of internet user and multinomial logistic model constructed for the estimation of age category the user may be assigned to. The only variables exploited in the model by the mean of stepwise regression are variables with significant influence. The impact of particular factors is quantified via odds ratios that are used for the identification of areas of interests typical for women, men and for considered age categories. The paper demonstrates how it is possible to utilise estimated logistic models for the estimation of probabilities that the internet user is from a target group – in our case, women aged 25–44 years old. Prediction quality of models is assessed by the set of classification measures arising from confusion matrix that is generally acceptable in machine learning. Presented analyses are conducted in statistical software SAS Enterprise Guide on data provided from the real advertising campaign. More than 160,000 statistical units enabled the confirm results gained on training dataset of a relatively huge validation dataset.
- ItemIs There a Trend of Euroization of EU Countries Still Using Their National Currencies? Trade and Invoicing(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Mačí, Jan; Ekonomická fakultaSeven of the eight EU countries not yet using the euro as their legal tender undertook to adopt the common currency in the future. However, the actual moment of adoption may influence, e.g. the attitude of the population (households). Other needs for the use of the euro have a business sector that is managed considering current market conditions and opportunities. The prerequisite of this article is that within the non-EMU EU economies, due to the close ties to EMU members and the prospect of a future, albeit often uncertain, approach to the euro area, the gradual euroization of businesses takes place. Among other things, euroization should be reflected in foreign trade, namely in the currency of invoicing. Using the Eurostat data from 2010–2018 on import and export and the currency of non-EMU countries invoicing to third countries expressed in EUR, USD, national and other currencies, the links between invoicing currency, size of economies and exchange rate regime were sought. The aim was also to describe the actual trend of invoicing international trade to third countries outside the EU. According to the results of the analysis, it was found that the block of non-EMU countries rather euroizes and the importance of the national currency is rather declining. The level of growth of the share of the euro and the decline of the national currency has a different intensity for imports and different for exports. At the same time, it was found that in the case of imports in EUR and NC and exports in EUR, a possible relationship between the invoicing currency and the exchange rate regime can be identified. Last but not least, it was found that in the case of invoicing in EUR and NC (national currency), there is a relationship between the size of GDP and the invoicing currency.
- ItemAn Analysis of Bond Market Liquidity and Real Sector Output in Selected African Economies(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Eke, Patrick O.; Adetiloye, Kehinde A; Adegbite, Esther O; Ekonomická fakultaThere is increasing traction in the literature on the activities of the secondary securities’ market especially with bonds on financial development, with little known on its functional linkage to real sector growth. Following popular theories on bond financing, this study sought to fill this gap by examining if functional tie exists between the secondary bond markets and real sector output among fourteen African countries with functional bond markets and complete data. Among the variables adapted for use are real gross domestic product per capital, corporate bond issues, industrial output, corporate bond turnover, financial education, electricity consumption and institutional quality. The study tested through unit roots to augmented Toda-Yamamoto non-causality and co-integration approach to investigate both the short- and long-term relationships among the different variables. A priori, it was expected that market information would engender capital raising through bond issues and fund allocation. The study however, discovers that corporate bond turnover does not cause industrial output growth, neither does it cause corporate bond issue. An important short run result indicates that the impact of financial education is gradually being felt in the bond markets. For most of the long-run relationships, the study accepted the Null hypothesis. This implies that the investing public do not absorb the usefulness of the market information, which may explain the thinness and shallowness of African corporate bond market overtime. The liquidity signalling effects is however found to influence regulatory institutional quality in the long-run. An accelerated financial market liberalization and tax incentives for private sector provision of market infrastructure are recommended among others for improvement in the African bond markets investigated, among others.
- ItemSustainable Construction Supplier Selection by a Multiple Criteria Decision-making Method with Hesitant Linguistic Information(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Liao, Huchang; Ren, Ruxue; Antucheviciene, Jurgita; Šaparauskas, Jonas; Al-Barakati, Abdullah; Ekonomická fakultaWithin the context of resource constraints and ecological environment imbalance, the adoption of green suppliers can help construction enterprises achieve sustainable development and improve their competitiveness. The selection of sustainable construction suppliers is a multi-criteria decision-making problem since multiple factors should be considered. The increasingly complex decision-making environment makes it difficult for evaluators to give accurate evaluation values. In this regard, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set is a qualitative evaluation tool to represent the comprehensive linguistic evaluation values of experts by considering the hesitancy behaviors of experts. In this paper, a scientific multi-criteria decision-making model based on the improved Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) method and the double normalization-based multi-aggregation (DNMA) method in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic environment is proposed. A new distance measure is proposed to measure the differences between hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets with different lengths without changing the original evaluation information of experts. The proposed distance measure is applied to the proposed multi-criteria decision-making model. After improving the calculation steps of the traditional SWARA method, we can determine the weights of criteria effectively through our proposed model. To verify the applicability of the proposed method, we implement it to select sustainable building suppliers. The effectiveness of the method is verified by sensitivity analysis. We also compare the results obtained by our method and those derived by the Weight Aggregated Sum Product ASsessment (WASPAS) method and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The proposed method have a strong applicability to solve the sustainability-related decision problems given that it can effectively determine the weights of criteria and flexibly meet the needs of decision-makers by adjusting the coefficient.
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