Browsing by Author "Tvrdoň, Michal"

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    Decomposition of unemployment: the case of the Visegrad group countries
    (Technická Univerzita v Liberci, 2016-03-09) Tvrdoň, Michal; Ekonomická fakulta
    Generally, output measured by real gross domestic product declines and the unemployment rate rises during the economic crisis. This relationship was confirmed in the past several crises. However, the impact of economic downturns on structural unemployment will depend on many factors. The aim of the paper is to decomposite unemployment and we try to estimate the rate of structural unemployment. We also made an effort to determine the effects of the crisis on economic performance and functioning of the labour market in the Visegrad group countries. The analysis showed considerable sensitivity of these economies to the development of the external environment (except Poland), mainly through an export channel – the most affected was an industry sector, especially automotive industry. It seems to be important to have more diversified structure of the economy, mainly the exports. Quarterly data from the Eurostat LFS database in the period between 2000 and 2014 were applied. In order to estimate the trend of the unemployment rate´s development was used Hodrick-Prescott filter. Data show that all observed economies recorded a low unemployment rate in a pre-crisis period and they had to face worsened labour market performance during and after the crisis. Our results suggest that structural component seems to be the most important component of total unemployment. Moreover, it has decreased in these countries, except Hungary. We also compared our approach with an OECD approach which is based on employment of Kalman filter. Results suggest that both methods, although they are based on different processes, lead to analogous results.
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    Estimating the regional natural rate of unemployment: the evidence from the Czech Republic
    (Technická Univerzita v Liberci, 2013-08-01) Tvrdoň, Michal; Verner, Tomáš; Ekonomická fakulta
    The paper deals with development of the regional unemployment rate in the Czech Republic. The unemployment rate differed significantly among the Czech NUTS 3 regions during the period 2005 and 2012. According to previous studies high unemployment is caused by drop in economic performance or by some structural problems in the region. We can see that the development of the Czech national unemployment rate was correlated with the economic cycle. In other words, it means that during economic growth the unemployment rate is decreasing and during economic downturn it is increasing. We used Czech Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs monthly seasonally adjusted data during the observed period between the years 2005 and 2012. We have applied 2005 registered unemployment methodology. In total, we had 96 observations. We also applied the Hodrick-Prescott filter for estimating the natural rate of unemployment. This method is often used for estimating the potential output and is possible to use in the case of unemployment. Our empirical results show that in most regions the real unemployment rate was lower than the natural rate of unemployment during the pre-crisis period. In other words, it means that the Czech labour market was in positive unemployment gap. However, this gap was not the same in all regions. We found that the positive unemployment gap was lower in the problematic regions like the Ustecky and Moravskoslezsky region. These findings suggest that these regions still have to face some structural problems and the labour market is not so flexible as in the rest of regions. In addition, we also found that the natural rate of unemployment has shifted permanently higher in comparison with the pre-crisis period.
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    Theory of international economic relations
    (Technická Univerzita v Liberci, 2015-12-01) Tvrdoň, Michal; Ekonomická fakulta