Browsing by Author "Mirdala, Rajmund"
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- ItemEffects of fiscal policy Shocks in CE3 countries (TVAR Approach)(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, 2017-06-15) Mirdala, Rajmund; Kameník, Martin; Ekonomická fakultaThe real output deterioration, high fiscal deficits and increased sovereign debt burden represents key phenomena that affected the maneuverability of fiscal authorities in the early crisis years. Controversy between fiscal sustainability and fiscally driven economic recovery fueled a large number of academic and policy discussions about the appropriate response of governments to the crisis challenges. Empirical literature provides mixed evidence about the effects of fiscal policy adjustments on the macroeconomic performance. Moreover, pro-cyclical patterns in fiscal policies of many countries during the pre-crisis period did not reveal clear lessons learned that would be beneficial for fiscal authorities during the crisis years. In the paper we examine effects of the fiscal policy shocks in CE3 (the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic and Hungary) within different stages of the business cycle by employing threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) model. We calculate fiscal multipliers and generalized impulse-response functions to assess the responsiveness of the real output to the fiscal policy adjustments. The main objective is to determine whether effects of the fiscal policy shocks differ during expansion and recession. Our results indicate that the size of fiscal multipliers and responsiveness of the real output are generally higher for spending fiscal shocks while effects of revenue fiscal shocks are much less dynamic in all three countries. While the effects of the fiscal spending shocks are more dynamic during recession in the Czech Republic and Hungary, fiscal spending multipliers in the Slovak Republic are generally high during the recession as well though higher during expansion. Moreover, differences in the responsiveness of the real output are slightly higher in case of the expenditure based fiscal adjustments in all three countries (in terms of both, regimes and sub-periods).
- ItemINFLATION PERSISTENCE AND UNIT ROOT TESTS IN THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES(Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Vyrostková, Lenka; Mirdala, Rajmund; Ekonomická fakultaPersistence is one of the main characteristics of inflation. One of the definitions of persistent inflation is, that it is the rate at which inflation reaches equilibrium after a certain macroeconomic shock. If the inflation persistence is high, the response to inflation shocks is long-lasting and difficult for the central bank to control. Conversely, if the country’s inflation persistence is low, the central bank can keep the inflation rate in line with the inflation target. The recent economic crisis made central banks adopt several unconventional monetary policy instruments to boost economic recovery and preserve price stability. Many authors note that data on stationary inflation in the euro area countries is a precondition for joining the European Union. As far as the functioning of the European Union is concerned, it is desirable to take the necessary decisions. The primary objective of the paper is to test the inflation rate data in the euro area countries to verify the existence of a unit root considering that central banks design their monetary policy frameworks under the assumption that inflation is a stationary process. The verification of the stationarity of the inflation data is divided into two sections. In the first section, the monthly data panel of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for euro-zone countries is used. The second section uses a panel of monthly data the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for each category of Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose for euro area countries. Our results indicate that time series for inflation in 11 of 19 euro area member countries are non-stationary and have a unit root. Considering our results we propose the creation of a two-speed euro area and the adjustment of the monetary policy framework in the euro area countries.