Browsing by Author "Dajčman, Silvo"

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    Transmission of Financial Stress Shocks between the USA and the Euro Area During Different Business Cycle Phases
    (Technická Univerzita v Liberci, ) Dajčman, Silvo; Kavkler, Alenka; Mikek, Peter; Romih, Dejan; Ekonomická fakulta
    This paper examines the transmission of financial stress shocks between the USA and the euro area for recessionary and non-recessionary regimes in the shock-recipient economy. The investigated period is 1999M1–2017M11, which includes several episodes of recessionary and non-recessionary regimes, endogenously determined by the model, as well as several financial stress episodes. After testing for non-linearity, we employ a five-variable Bayesian threshold vector autoregression model using internationally compatible data for financial stress indices. Our results show significant non-linearities in the financial stress-business cycle interactions for the euro area. In comparison to the non-recessionary regime, the US financial stress shocks are more detrimental to the stability of the European financial system, output growth, and inflation in recessions. US financial stress shocks negatively affect euro area unemployment rate, but the effect is independent of the euro area industrial production growth regime. In contrast, the stability of the US financial system is not susceptible to the euro area’s financial stress shocks. However, due to trade ties, the financial stress in the euro area does lead to output contraction, while not affecting inflation and unemployment in the US. We also found that US industrial production growth and unemployment rate are susceptible to domestic financial stress shocks, more in the recessionary than non-recessionary episodes of the US economy. The results suggest a need for a careful domestic and foreign financial stress monitoring and coordination of monetary authorities. While this may profit both economic areas, this is relevant more for the European Central Bank than its US counterpart.
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    Wavelet analysis of stock return energy decomposition and return comovement - a case of some central European and developed European stock markets
    (Technická Univerzita v Liberci, 2014-03-04) Dajčman, Silvo; Kavkler, Alenka; Ekonomická fakulta
    In this article we investigate comovement of the three Central and Eastern European (CEE) stock markets (Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Hungary) with certain developed European stock markets (Austria, France, Germany and the United Kingdom) through the novel approach of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT). We use two features of MODWT to explore energy decomposition of stock market returns at different time scales and to apply methodology of [29] to study comovement between investigated stock markets. We show that most of the energy (variability) of stock market return series is captured by scale 1 (which correspond to 2–4 days return dynamics) and scale 2 (which correspond to 4-8 days return dynamics) MODWT coefficients. MODWT details are used to show that comovement between stock markets is scale-dependent and declines from raw (daily) return series to first- and second-scale reconstructed return series. The findings of the survey then have important implications for foreign financial investors who already hold international portfolios that exactly replicate those of non-Czech or non-Hungarian stock markets: international investing in the Czech or Hungarian stock markets with investment horizons corresponding to scale 2 (4 to 8 days) brings greater international diversification benefits than shorter (2 to 4 day horizon) international trading diversification strategies. The Slovenian stock market differs from the Czech and Hungarian markets also in this respect, as when the scale is increased the benefits of diversification are reduced. We also find that the volatility of Slovenian stock index returns is less synchronized with other observed stock return series. Interestingly, the Czech and Slovenian stock markets seem to comove with the Austrian stock market to a greater extent than with other developed stock markets.